Monday, 8 October 2012

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U.S. stocks erased gains, after an early rally among benchmark indexes, as optimism about an unexpected drop in the American unemployment rate faded and Apple Inc. shares slumped. The index rose 1.4 percent this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 34.79 points, or 0.3 percent, to 13,610.15, the highest level since December 2007.  
The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009, as employers took on more part-time workers. The economy added 114,000 workers, in-line with economists’ estimates, and August’s growth was revised higher by 46,000 jobs to 142,000. Today’s employment report is the penultimate before the November elections as Obama and challenger Mitt Romney debate whose policies would best spur job growth.
“The report is a step in the right direction, ” said John De Clue, the Minneapolis-based global investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which oversees $113 billion,  in a telephone interview. However, he added that  most market participants are probably looking at this in the context of the presidential election rather than in the context of any fundamental change in the economy. “ we’re still at an unemployment rate that’s not making the Fed happy.”
In Europe, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said Spain hasn’t taken a decision on whether to seek a bailout and any decision will be based on Spaniards’ best interests. Spain needs to consider all the conditions, Rajoy said at a meeting with other leaders in Malta today, reiterating the government’s position.
The S&P 500 has rallied 16 percent this year as central banks from the U.S. to China took steps to stimulate economic growth. The benchmark index reached the highest level since 2007 last month as the Fed announced a third round of quantitative easing, saying it will purchase mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month until labor markets “improve substantially.”
[Bloomberg]
Oil Futures settled at their lowest in a week after a boost from the U.S. jobs report was short-lived without overt geopolitical worries to support prices.
Malaysia's KLCI is down 0.2% at 1657.47 at the midday break, tracking declines in Asian stock markets amid concerns over Europe's debt troubles; MIDF Research says market volatility is currently at "a healthy level and should support" the market's momentum; the house notes the KLCI gained an average 3.4% in the month of October over the last 10 years and the KLCI may edge close to the 1700 level based on historical benchmarks. MIDF tips a 1670 year-end target for the KLCI. (Dow Jones Newswire)

Friday, 5 October 2012

FCPO Related News
SINGAPORE, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures gained on Friday as steep losses earlier in the week continued to lure buyers back into the market.  According to a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia, this rebound is very much within anticipation as selling has been exhausted. "There's definitely short covering ahead of the weekend", he added.  By the midday break, the benchmark December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange surged 4.1 percent to 2,448 ringgit ($803) per tonne, after trading in a range of 2,385-2,448 ringgit. Total traded volumes stood at 15,039 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 12,500 lots.
There was also some positioning ahead of a government decision on a proposal to cut palm oil export taxes. Traders are awaiting a possible decision by the Malaysian cabinet on a proposal to cut crude palm oil export taxes to 8-10 percent from a current 23 percent in a bid to counter competition from top producer Indonesia. But prices are on still on track for a weekly drop of almost 4 percent, their third straight weekly decline. Palm oil shed more than 11 percent in the first two days of the week, tumbling to a near 3-year low at 2,230 ringgit per tonne on Wednesday, before paring losses later in the week.
After a steep decline in prices in recent weeks, analysts are calling for a recovery by the end of the year. "In our view, crude palm oil (CPO) prices are due for a significant upward correction, to 3,250 ringgit by end Q4 from current levels near 2,350 ringgit, after an excessive decline in September and October," said Standard Chartered analyst Abah Ofon in a research note. The recovery will be driven by a drop in Malaysian production and Indonesian inventories in Q4 as well as supportive external markets and bullish CPO price seasonality, the note added.
In a bearish sign for palm oil, Brent futures slipped below $112 per barrel on Friday, but they are on course to end a choppy week nearly flat as rising tensions in the Middle East battle with perennial worries about the global economy and oil demand. In other vegetable oils markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery gained 0.3 percent in Asian trade. The Dalian Commodity Exchange is closed for a week-long holiday in China and will resume trading on Oct. 8.
Soybean futures rose Thursday due to better-than-expected weekly export sales report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and based on positive technical signals which indicated sharply oversold conditions. The USDA reported net export sales of 1.3 million metric tons in the week ended Sept. 27, with China accounting for much of the volume. The sales were above traders' expectations for sales in a range of 700,000 to 900,000 tons, according to a Dow Jones Newswires poll.
Technicals showed palm oil would rebound more to 2,503 ringgit as it has cleared a resistance at 2,399 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
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U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a fourth day, as reports on jobless claims and factory orders were better than forecast and the European Central Bank said it stands ready to buy bonds.
U.S. data showing the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose only slightly after a big drop the prior week added to the positive tone in equity markets. The data came a day before the government's closely watched monthly report on the job market.
Oil prices rallied 4 percent a day after registering a steep fall as Turkey's retaliatory strikes on Syria heightened tensions in the Middle East, while U.S. gasoline futures rallied following a fire at a refinery in Texas.
ECB President Mario Draghi, speaking after the bank held benchmark lending rates steady at 0.75 percent, said "the euro is irreversible." He also said the ECB is ready to buy the bonds of troubled euro-zone economies that ask for it.
Malaysia's KLCI reached a new all-time high, up 0.1% at 1662.53 midday break, amid gains in most Asian stock markets; the benchmark index earlier hit a high of 1668.32. Maybank IB says the KLCI is likely to head towards its target of 1683 however, it cautions that "volatility and profit-taking may emerge at these lofty price levels." Support is tipped at 1661.

Wednesday, 3 October 2012


FCPO Related News
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange fell for a fifth-consecutive session Tuesday, hitting the lowest level in three years, reflecting tepid demand and rising supplies. The benchmark December contract at Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended 8.5% lower at 2,255 ringgit a metric ton after tumbling as much as 8.7% to MYR2,250/ton, the lowest since November 2009.
Rising supplies of the commodity weighed on prices, trade participants said. "We are talking about September production rising 20%-30% on month, surging inventories. It is very much a bear market for now, so people are just selling," a senior trading executive at a Kuala Lumpur-based foreign brokerage said. He tipped palm oil to extend declines toward MYR2,200/ton.
Trading executives said end-September palm oil stockpiles might have risen to 2.25 million-2.3 million tons due to a seasonal surge in production. September shipments of palm oil from Malaysia, the world’s biggest producer after Indonesia, were little-changed from August. Cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. pegged outbound sales at 1.43 million-1.44 million tons.
Meanwhile, palm oil importers in India are seeking to renegotiate contracts after prices plunged to their lowest levels in almost three years, two trading executives said Tuesday. Over the past seven months, palm oil prices had risen 12% before falling by almost one-third this week, triggering cancelled deals. Since last week, buyers that process palm oil into a wide variety of consumer products have walked away from previously signed agreements after prices turned against them.
Any defaults by importers may add to palm oil inventories in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s top producers, and weigh on prices further. Malaysia’s palm oil stockpiles totaled 2.12 million metric tons at the end of August, the highest level since last October. The two trading executives estimate that as much as 200,000 tons of the tropical oil are being renegotiated. "There is also talk that buyers from India may default on earlier agreements," a Singapore-based trading executive said. "Palm oil prices plunged yesterday amid concerns that Chinese buyers may do the same–renege on contracts when they come back from the long holidays."
Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange fell for a fourth-consecutive session Monday, hitting the lowest level in 15 months due to market concern about weak manufacturing activity in China and rising vegetable oil supplies. The benchmark December contract at Bursa Malaysia Derivatives fell 3.2% to 2,464 ringgit a metric ton after falling as much as 3.8% to MYR2,449/ton, the lowest since July 2010.
Manufacturing activity in China, a major vegetable oil consumer, contracted in September for a second-straight month, the official manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index showed Monday, raising concerns that the nation’s palm oil demand could decline. "Speculative selling along with seasonal pressure on prices amid the peak CPO production period in Southeast Asia weighed on the market today," a commodities trader in Singapore said. "Selling was exacerbated by the September export numbers, as many expected shipments to be significantly higher."
Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services said September exports fell 0.7% to 1.44 million tons, due to reduced shipments to Europe and the Indian subcontinent. Another surveyor, SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., said September exports reached 1.43 million tons, a 0.5% rise from its estimate for August. Any rally in palm oil prices is likely to meet strong resistance around MYR2,500-MYR2,550 a ton, a technical analyst in Kuala Lumpur said.  
(Dow Jones Newswire)
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street ended little changed in a volatile session on Tuesday as uncertainty over when Spain might apply for a bailout shackled a market struggling to build on gains that took the S&P 500 to its highest in nearly five years.
The Dow was pressured by stocks closely tied to the pace of growth, including Caterpillar Inc (CAT) and Boeing Co (BA). A major headwind for the economy has been declining demand from Europe, which has been drifting toward recession. The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) was down 32.83 points, or 0.24 percent, at 13,482.28. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^GSPC) was up 1.26 points, or 0.09 percent, at 1,445.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC) was up 6.51 points, or 0.21 percent, at 3,120.04.
0926 GMT [Dow Jones] Malaysian shares end up 0.5% at 1651.03 on Tuesday, tracking gains in regional equities following improved manufacturing data from U.S. However, much of the index's gain will depend on developments in Europe and the widely anticipated Moody's review on Spain, a local dealer said. More upside confirmation will be available if the spot month manage to breach its all time high above 1,658 level. However,  if the market cannot breach its all time high, we are likely looking at sideways range with Support  located around 1,600.

Monday, 1 October 2012

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U.S. stocks fell for the week, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index posted its biggest drop since June, on concern Europe’s debt crisis is worsening and stimulus measures may not be enough to boost economic growth.
The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index (S15HOME) slid 7.3 percent for the first drop in five weeks amid worse-than-expected housing data. Technology stocks and commodity producers led declines as investors sold shares of companies most tied to economic swings. Apple (AAPL) Inc. posted its biggest drop since May after the release of its iPhone 5. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) slid 6.2 percent as it cut its earnings forecast.
Data during the week showed the U.S. economy grew 1.3 percent in the second quarter, less than previously estimated, while monthly U.S. business activity unexpectedly contracted for the first time in three years. At the same time, confidence among American consumers rose to a four-month high.
Stocks fell as European leaders clashed on ways to stem the debt crisis. The Bank of Spain said the economy kept falling at a “significant pace” in the third quarter, and the government announced its fifth austerity package in what may be a move to head off tougher conditions demanded as part of a potential European bailout. China’s manufacturers and retailers are less optimistic about sales than they were three months ago and are cutting jobs, according to a survey.
Malaysia shares will likely remain rangebound as investors continue to digest Friday's Budget 2013 announcement in the absence of market moving leads; the benchmark index KLCI will probably swing between its key support and resistance levels of 1600 and 1655, says HwangDBS. "On the whole, we reckon there will likely be a neutral impact (from the Budget 2013) on the broad market,"

FKLI  Related News
U.S. stocks fell for the week, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index posted its biggest drop since June, on concern Europe’s debt crisis is worsening and stimulus measures may not be enough to boost economic growth.
The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index (S15HOME) slid 7.3 percent for the first drop in five weeks amid worse-than-expected housing data. Technology stocks and commodity producers led declines as investors sold shares of companies most tied to economic swings. Apple (AAPL) Inc. posted its biggest drop since May after the release of its iPhone 5. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) slid 6.2 percent as it cut its earnings forecast.
Data during the week showed the U.S. economy grew 1.3 percent in the second quarter, less than previously estimated, while monthly U.S. business activity unexpectedly contracted for the first time in three years. At the same time, confidence among American consumers rose to a four-month high.
Stocks fell as European leaders clashed on ways to stem the debt crisis. The Bank of Spain said the economy kept falling at a “significant pace” in the third quarter, and the government announced its fifth austerity package in what may be a move to head off tougher conditions demanded as part of a potential European bailout. China’s manufacturers and retailers are less optimistic about sales than they were three months ago and are cutting jobs, according to a survey.
Malaysia shares will likely remain rangebound as investors continue to digest Friday's Budget 2013 announcement in the absence of market moving leads; the benchmark index KLCI will probably swing between its key support and resistance levels of 1600 and 1655, says HwangDBS. "On the whole, we reckon there will likely be a neutral impact (from the Budget 2013) on the broad market,"